Power hungry India needs nuke plants

The ongoing agitation near Kudankulam nuc lear power plant has yet again highlighted the public concerns regarding desirability of nuclear power.
There is no doubt that the government will take the necessary steps to commission the Kudankulam reactors, as it should because investments of `15,000 crore in a crucial sector of economy cannot be allowed to go waste. Also, the High Court and Supreme Court have refused to stay the fuel loading.

However, the bigger question is over the future of nuclear power programme in India. Will we see similar agitations every time a reactor is about to be built or commissioned? How do we reconcile the country's thirst for energy with the public acceptance of nuclear power?
Make no mistake the country needs energy and that too, desperately. As the recent power blackout in North India demonstrated, the country continues to face an acute energy shortage.
The peak power demand-supply gap is about 15 per cent, and our coal imports are growing every year. Notwithstanding the ambitious targets, a solar/wind plant produces about one-fourth of the energy generated by a coal/nuclear power plant of the same capacity.

Is nuclear power the answer?
Critics would argue that today nuclear power generates just three per cent of the country's energy and that several countries have abandoned their nuclear power programmes. However, unlike Germany, we are not in a position to renounce any particular source of energy. Every kilo watt hour counts, whether generated or saved. Building ten 1,000 MW reactors will increase the share of nuclear power to about 10 per cent, which the country can't do without. So what lies ahead of nuclear power?
The protests have made it clear that safety of reactors is the most important public concern. The Russian VVER reactors have a few decades of history of successful operation in Russia and other countries. We must remember that Chernobyl reactor accident was an exceptional case, in which all safety norms were violated to perform an experiment under time pressure. We must also remember that there are more than 400 reactors operating worldwide and among them there have been three major accidents till now. Fukushima accident was caused by an earthquake and tsunami of unprecedented magnitude, well beyond the engineering design. Three Mile Island (TMI) was again caused by human error, but did not result in any radioactive release to the environment. India can credit itself with operating 20 reactors for decades without any reportable accident. Therefore, while it is understandable for people to be concerned about safety, it is important to see things in perspective.

Effective risk communication strategies are vital to ensure public acceptance of nuclear power.
For future expansion of the nuclear power programme, the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) will have to engage with the public in a more proactive and transparent manner.
Historically, the Indian nuclear power programme is closely interlinked with the strategic programme and therefore is shrouded in secrecy. As a result, the public doesn't always trust the government on safety issues.
Statements such as “nuclear power is 100 per cent safe“ do not cut much ice either.

In countries having large nuclear power programme, there is a significant public understanding of nuclear safety regulations. For instance, the French who generate 75 per cent of their electricity from nuclear plants have safety regulations that are considered the best in ensuring public confidence in the nuclear power industry.

In India, there is a proposal to replace the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board by the Nuclear Safety Regulatory Authority, which is under the government’s consideration. The proposed new authority should have the necessary mandate and expertise not only to function in an independent manner but also perceived to be so. For instance, the government’s strategy should be in tandem with the rapid communication technologies of our times. If possible, not only the safety measures but also the decision-making process undergone to arrive at these measure should be provided to the public.

More transparency also implies being realistic in nuclear power projections. The present projection of nuclear power is over 600,000 MW by 2050; 120 times the present installed capacity.

Almost 550,000 MW is expected to come from Fast Breeder Reactors, which is still yet to be technically and economically proven. It implies identifying around 100 new sites, mostly along coastal regions. In the present scenario, it looks unlikely that the country would get anywhere close to these expectations. The DAE would generate

more confidence if it sets realistic targets, which could be achieved in a reasonable time frame. There are also concerns about the desirability of importing Light Water Reactors (LWR) on grounds of economics and specifically in case of the Jaitapur plant, a first of its kind reactor design. The decision to import 40,000 MW was motivated by the desire for rapid capacity addition.
While we should pursue this, at the same time, the country should also continue with the expansion of the domestic Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWR) programme. The domestic uranium resources constrained the PHWR programme to 10,000 MW.
However, now with the possibility of uranium imports, we should expand the PHWR programme since they are cost-effective as compared to the LWR.

We also have to take into account the economic aspirations of the population, which gets directly affected by the power plants, including those people who reside close to the plant. The initial protests in Kudankulam also had to do with the perception of loss of livelihoods of people dependent on fishing. For example, the population residing near the power plant should have greater employment opportunities and improved standard of living conditions. The Kudankulam reactor will soon be pumping electricity into the national grid. However, we need more of these to meet the country's surging energy requirements. The experience in Koodankulam suggests that the DAE evolve an entirely new approach for public engagement to ensure smooth expansion of the future nuclear power programme.

The writers are with the Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, Bengaluru The population residing near the power plant should have greater employment opportunities and improved standard of living conditions

Aothors : Anshu Bharadwaj, Debapriya Das, S. Rajgopal

Source : DC

Giant Walmart vs the small farmer

Walmart and the small, independent farmer cannot coexist. When Walmart dominates, agribusiness dominates.
India is a land of small farmers. According to the United Nations, the smaller the farm, the higher the productivity.Small farms grow biodiversity. They are falsely described as unproductive because productivity in agriculture has been manipulated to exclude diversity and exclude costs of high chemical and capital inputs in chemical industrial agriculture.
When biodiversity is taken into account, small farms produce more food and higher incomes.
In the heated debate on FDI in retail, those promoting it repeatedly claim that the entry of corporations like Walmart will benefit the Indian farmer. Reference is made to getting rid of the middleman.
Any trader who mediates in the distribution of goods between producers and consumers is a middleman. Walmart is neither a producer nor a consumer.
Therefore, it is also a middleman; it is a giant middleman with global muscle. That is how it has become the world’s biggest retailer, carrying out business of nearly $480 billion. So the issue is not getting rid of the middleman but replacing the small arthi with a giant one. The Walton Family is the global arthi located in the US, not in the local community. And this new kind of arthi combines the functions of all small traders everywhere from wholesale to retail. Instead of millions of small traders taking a two per cent commission at different levels, Walmart gets all profits. If three small
traders mediate at two per cent between the producer and consumer, the difference between the farm price and consumer price is just six per cent. When Walmart enters the picture, the difference jumps with the farmer getting only two per cent of the consumer price and Walmart and its supply chain harvesting the 98 per cent. So the issue is not the number of middlemen but their size and their share of profits. It was to avoid this concentration of power over the agricultural produce market that India created the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) Act. Our mandis are governed by cooperatives, which include farmers.No trader can buy more than a certain amount.
This prevents monopolies. It creates a decentralised, democratic distribution system from wholesale to retail.
The government, especially the Planning Commission, has been trying very hard to dismantle the APMCs and mandis to facilitate the entry of big business in agriculture. The announcement of FDI in retail will radically change Indian agriculture. It threatens the survival of the small Indian farmer and the
diversity of our farming systems.Given the size of Walmart, it creates a monopsony through its buying power. It does not go to each small farmer and buys the five sacks of extra produce.
It works through giant supply chains and giant suppliers which have no place for the small.
Walmart and the small, independent farmer cannot coexist. When Walmart dominates, agribusiness dominates.
Industry and corporations start to control agriculture.
We can already see early attempts at the industry takeover of agriculture to match centralised and giant production systems with centralised and giant retail. On March 5 this year, the government announced a new policy for the corporate control of agriculture called Public-Private Partnership for Integrated Agricultural Development (PPP-IAD) — a scheme for facilitating large-scale integrated projects, led by privatesector players in the agriculture and allied sectors, with a view to aggregating farmers, creating critical rural infrastructure, introducing new technologies, adding value and integrating the agricultural supply chain.
The department of agriculture and cooperation has launched the PPP-IAD, which is proposed to cover 10 lakh farmers across India during the period 201217. Each of the integrated agricultural projects would involve engaging a minimum of 10,000 farmers. The scheme would accept proposals from private corporate entities on integrated agricultural development projects with the proviso that intervention must cover all aspects from production to marketing.
Subsidies will now go to corporations, not the farmers. In effect, 10,000 farmers will no longer be independent produc
ers, but bonded to the corporation. These corporations will be Walmart's partners, not the small farmer.This scheme , and the policy framework of which it is a part, is in effect a subversion of both land reforms and our food security. Land reforms in India got rid of zamindari and put land in the hands of the tiller. Land ceiling was introduced to ensure there would be no concentration of ownership over land. What the government is calling “reforms“ are, in effect, anti-reform reforms, aimed at undoing every policy and law that we have put in place in independent and democratic India to ensure the rozi roti of the last person. Walmart will harm and wipe out small farmers and businesses in India the way it has harmed farmers and retailers in the US. And because the density of small farmers and small retailers is higher in India than anywhere else in the world, the destructive impact will be magnified manifold.
The argument that we need FDI in retail was made when the government allowed Walmart to enter wholesale business in 2007. No infrastructure has been built, even though five years have passed. In any case, the government has given away crores in subsidies for warehouses and cold storages since it introduced “reforms“. We need a black paper to assess all the public money that has already been spent on what the government says only Walmart can do.
And the more the government pushes policies towards monopolies and monocultures, the more committed I become to defend our economic democracy and diversity as a saner, more sustainable, more just alternative to the disease of giganticism.


The writer is the executive director of the Navdanya Trust

Author : Vandana Shiva
Source : DC

Pub Ad 2011 mains

Golden Principle
Always follow the Tail-word or Question-word of the question because the sentence of question
without Tail-word or Question-word is not a question.e.g. Comment, Examine etc.( refer writing
skill)
a novel idea which is behaviourally the most rational. It lead towards an ideal democratic
situation which will be acceptable to all without any loss.
Golden Principle
Avoid general questions because it has subjectivity in evaluation. Specific questions are to be
preferred where domain of the issue is limited. This brings objectivity in writing.
McGregor borrows from Follett the idea of conflict resolution. He also believes that conflict can
be resolved through constructive means.
 In other words conflict can be turned into mutual support and innovation. He discusses three
possible strategies to deal with conflict.
(a) The divide and rule
(b) The suppression of differences and
(c) Working through differences.
 The first two strategies are based on assumptions of theory X in which manager perceives
his subordinate negatively.  Therefore he plays politics and takes harsh steps to resolve problems.
Mc Gregor suggest that professional manager should remain aloof from mutual  antagonism,
politics, favouratism etc. He should adopt Theory Y assumption and should steer through
differences. It includes converting disputes into mutual support, differences into innovation and
rejection of discipline into commitment to decision as well as  strengthening of relationship
within the group.
 This approach of McGregor is in consonance with Follett’s idea of constructive conflict
which requires conversion of negative energy into positive force by means of  wisdom and
insight.
3(a) Whereas  Down’s model is largely dependent on a theory of psychological motivation
and Niskanen’s model is framed by neo-classical thinking.
 In the light of above, discuss the Public Choice Approach to decision-making. 30
Ans  Public Choice Approach has been recognized as a dominant paradigm in studying public
administration from the economic perspective in the light of neo-libral and neo-classical thinking.
Its proponents Niskanen, Downs, Tullock, Arrow etc. tried to provide a new Economics based
analysis of public service given by bureaucracy . The New Institutional Economics gives thrust to
market dominated public delivery system through Public Choice Theory.
 Niskanen in his book ‘Bureaucracy and Representative Government’ gives a detailed
picture of the situation where bureaucracy exploit people in delivery of goods and services. He
argues that ‘Bureaucrats are
Answer Tips Q.3(a)
Discuss :  Conversation with positive tone.
You should not write Public Choice Theory in general. Write the special contribution of Anthony
Downs and relate how it is concerned with psychological motivation. Also Niskanen’s work
corresponds to neo-classical thinking. Classical Economic theorists like Adam Smith talked about
Laissez faire state. Niskanen’s prescription is modification of this idea. One neo classical theory
in Public Administration is Human Relation Theory. However, this question or idea is not
concerned with HRT.self maximizer, so is the case with politicians. ’Bureaucrats try to maximize government budget
so that they could get more power, perks, salary, and enhanced status. Politician work to increase
their vote bank. Niskanen’s argument is based on the assumption that every individual is a selfmaximizer and he uses the idea of ‘methodological individualism’ for taking decision. By using
logical steps in decision he tries to maximize his own benefit. Bureaucrats and politicians are not
excluded from this rational decision process.
 In fact, bureaucracy does not receive any incentive for better performance because
government service does not have incentive system. In this background the quality of goods and
services provided by bureaucracy is poor. As government has monopoly over certain services it
leads towards exploitation of people. As per this argument ‘institutional pluralism’ and ‘state
minimalism’ is desirable step. It will provide choice to people, will bring competition and will
benefit all. Niskanen’s prescription is neo classical as he advocates opening of monpolistic
service of government, for the market. His argument favours  limiting the scope of state, the
central ideal in neo-classical thinking of economically rational model.
 Anthony Downs’ model on the other hand, is  based on people’s motivational aspect. Downs
has propounded , ‘Economic Theory of Democracy’. He advocates that people’s voting behaviour
is based on their cost-benefit analysis of the voting. He argues that when a voter analysis that the
cost of voting is higher than the outcome from it, he does not prefer to vote. He finds in his
analysis that generally people do not prefer to vote because they don’t find it something ensuring
them better return. Downs’ prescription of this type is based on psychological motivation of
people. This theory of Anthony Down’s is also called ‘paradox of voting’ or ‘Down’s paradox’.
 Eventually, this assessment of psychological motivation by  Downs creates assumption of
Public Choice Theory, “ Each is better off if all pay for it, Each is still better off if only I do not
pay for it”. Based on this idea Public Choice Theorists prescribed difference between ‘public
goods’ and ‘private goods.
 They suggest that the services which are not used by everyone in the society is a private
goods. In this definition National Highway is a private goods because only vehicle dwellers use
it. Hence, they propose privatisation of these services and goods so that only users should pay it.
‘Early Warning System’ with high technological backup can help in quick evacuation of  people
to save their life from storm, flood, cyclone, tsunami etc. An integrated development plan can
also help in preventing disaster of more destructive nature. Construction of building with safety
norms, construction of railway bridges etc. based on topography and geology can reduce the risk
and vulnerability.
In short a new culture of disaster management shows us the path  of more safety and care by
becoming alarmed and updated.  
8(b) Disaster insurance is desirable but not an easy proposition to implement” Illustrate
with suitable examples.    30
Ans: Disaster Insurance is a financial tool for risk reduction. While funding can be made
available for relief and rehabilitation, but they are post-disaster funding and they can manage
crisis only when devastations have already taken place.
Disaster Insurance is an important mitigation measure in disaster prone areas. It brings quality in
the infrastructure because once ‘insured’ a structure requires to follow building codes, guidelines concerning materials of construction, and various norms relating to safety. In this way disaster
insurance insists following safety norms and develops a culture of safety. It has been seen that
disaster insurance company ensure return on premium only when the safety guidelines are
followed.
Disaster insurance works under the premise “higher the risk, higher the premium lesser the rick,
premium lesser.” This premise creates an awareness in  the people regarding the degree of
vulnerability of the area where people are setling. This element of disaster insurance motivates
people to settle in relatively safer area.  
This phenomenon can work as a risk reduction factor for disaster management.
Apart from this, availability of insurance company provides for more indepth research on the
hazard mapping  which can be used for reducing destruction. In Japan after Kobe earthquake of
1995, Earthquake Research committee has prepared Japan National Seismic Hazard Maps. These
maps have been put to use and have been found appropriate for modelling financial risk. The
methodology uses an objective measure of ground motion intensity, called spectral acceleration to
directly correlate ground motion to building performance  based on height of the building,
construction  material and ground motion propagation. They  also studied the actual building
behavior during Kobe Earthquake and Niigata Ken Chetsu earthquake  of  2004.This allows
insurance companies as well as investors to determine financial as well as non-financial norms for
insurance market. Thus Japan’s Earthquake model meets the unique need of insurance market by
allowing insurers to assess the seismic vulnerability of individual location and successfully
manage their entire portfolio at risk using the latest scientific modelling techniques  and market
research on financial loss perspective.
Answer Tips Q.8(a)(ii)
Write a not : Factual description
This question is based on the report of a high powered committee created for Disaster Management in 1999.You have
to write in brief about all four elements discussed by the committee.
If we assess the situation of developing country like India, the catastrophe research in very
backward not allowing insurance market to grow.
Implementation of disaster insurance is very difficult task in countries like India . The basic
reason lies in backwardness of the people as well as disinterest of private insurance market. In
India and other developing nation the most vulnerable section of population belongs to low
income group. The decreased per capita income of these people does not allow savings. Lack of
savings work against solid  asset creation. They are bound to live in Kachha places which can not
be covered by disaster insurance due to its own technical resources. The major determinant of
insurance density is per capita income and the poor status of people in this regard prevents
insurance companies to work in poor areas.
As per World Bank’s Policy Research paper, in developing countries less than 2% of the total
direct losses from natural disaster is covered under insurance whereas in developed countries like
France and U.S this coverage is of 40-100%. Despite the growing exposures and vulnerability to
hazards, developing countries retain most of the attendant risk due to the undeveloped state of
their domestic insurance market and a resultant inability to transfer the risk to international reinsurace markets.
Based on the observation of World Bank document it can be easily concluded that the insurance
markets has not grown considerably in developing nations. Therefore they cannot cover the risk
with poor state of affairs. In India we find the same conditions prevailing. There are only
marginal work on this area. Insurance companies are able to cover only urban population of big
town and also only middle and higher income groups. Lack of awareness and sensitivity in people
concerning disaster insurance also makes this market incapable of covering broader hazards and
vulnerabilities.  The steps have been taken by NGOs and micro-credit institution to bring disaster insurance under
financial back up. However, these Institution can’t work effectively without support from
government. ARC-II has recommended that“Government and the insurance Companies should
play a more pro-active role in motivating citizens in vulnerable areas to take insurance cover.
This could be done
Golden Principle
Don’t defend the government on wrong issues. A fair criticism can be made. Your writing should
not reflect in you a sycophant bureaucrat with inability to take bold decisions. Civil Servant’s
code of conduct require Civil Servants to furnish fair and neutral advice even if minister does not
like it; This trait can be tested through evaluating the writings of examinee the people who do not
accept loopholes in system can’t bring reform in it. It is expected from Civil Servants that they
must accept the demerits of the system and suggest reform. However, avoid being controversial.

Criminal Justice System: Draft National
Policy Paper
A committee was appointed to draft a National Policy Paper on criminal justice by Ministry of
Home Affairs. The Committee was headed by N. R. Madhav Menon.
The Committee, appointed in May 2006, was asked to draft a National Policy Paper on Criminal
Justice, keeping in mind the prevailing law and practices, socio-cultural values and the changing
nature of crime, with a view to making the justice delivery system faster, fairer, uncomplicated
and inexpensive.
There is widespread dissatisfaction with the way crimes are investigated, and criminals
prosecuted by our existing Criminal Justice System which, in public perception, affords little
protection to life and property and renders criminality as a “low risk, high profit business”.
The apparent reasons for popular dissatisfaction with the system are :
(i) Even after prolonged and costly procedures, not even one-fourth of cases end in conviction.
(ii) Money and influence play a significant role resulting in double standards – the rich often get
away lightly and the poor are put to suffering and discrimination.
(iii) Delays defeat justice and the offenders go unpunished; witnesses are threatened and have no
protection.
(iv) Victims are totally ignored in the system and get no relief for the injuries or losses suffered.
Even registration of their complaints often becomes difficult without money or influence.
(v) An unholy nexus is perceived to prevail between criminal syndicates, politicians and the law
enforcement officials, affecting criminal proceedings and the rule of law.
(vi) Corruption has taken a heavy toll of the system
De-criminalization of “marginal” offences, which can as well be tackled through civil or
administrative procedures, by a continuous process of review and revision, is an urgently needed
reform. Criminal sanctions should be reserved only as the last option in social ordering.
Apart from recognizing the right of the victims to implead themselves in criminal judicial
proceedings, a speedy and effective scheme of compensation to victims should be implemented, For this, a Victim Compensation Fund has to be instituted, to be administered through the Legal
Services Authorities.
Crimes need to be classified and organized into four distinct and comprehensive CODES, on the
basis of gravity of the injury and the appropriateness of the response needed to deal effectively
with it. Social Welfare Offences Code  for offences which are civil in nature. Arrest and detention
are

Gagan

There are many reasons for Indian airlines, a perpetually struggling lot, to be hopeful: more foreign funding, more overseas routes and cheaper oil. Yet, more than all this, what could embellish the bottom line of Indian carriers next year is a new navigation system in Indian skies that, its makers say, will knock off 20% of the fuel bill of airlines and increase air traffic.

The effect can be potent as fuel costs swallow about 50% of an airline's revenues. At 20% savings, a crude calculation on 2011-12 numbers shows that Jet AirwaysBSE 0.88 % would have turned a Rs 1,236 crore loss into a Rs 90 crore profit, and SpiceJetBSE 1.08 % would have shaved off Rs 439 crore of its Rs 605 crore loss. And ifKingfisherBSE -4.91 %hadn't since gone into a freefall, even it would have knocked off Rs 589 crore of its Rs 651 crore loss for the year.

Here's how. Today, when an aircraft takes off in Indian skies, it doesn't trace a straight vertical line to a cruising height. It, instead, rises in fits and starts, with bursts of acceleration. Likewise, between two destinations, it doesn't trace the straight line -- the shortest distance. It, instead, zigs and zags.

Both manoeuvres mean airlines end up burning more fuel than ideal because current Indian air-navigation systems don't allow for the greater accuracy and surety available in some other parts of the world. This is set to change in July, 2013, when the Airports Authority of India (AAI) launches GPS-aided GEO augmented navigation system (GAGAN). "Airlines can save 20% on their fuel costs," reckons S Sundara Raman, executive director (communication, navigation & surveillance), AAI.

Straighter Routes

GAGAN will catapult India into an elite league in air navigation: this is only the fourth such system in the world, after that of the US, European Union and Japan (see graphic). "It's an eye in the sky," says Amber Dubey partner, aviation, KPMG. "With ground-based systems (the current system), there's a need to have systems at every few kilometre. Here, one satellite tracks everything, and far more accurately."

GAGAN is a superior version of the current GPS system: it can detect activity at a finer level. So, while aircraft in India currently keep a distance of 80-100 miles, GAGAN will reduce this to 30 miles. This will allow thrice as many planes to fly, and reduce congestion on busy routes, as well as make Indian skies safer. Raman expects a six-fold increase in time. He also estimates airlines to reduce their flying time on the Delhi-Mumbai route by 10 minutes.

A senior SpiceJet technical official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, confirms that airlines don't take a straight line between two destinations. "We take pre-determined routes set by the air traffic control centre. For example, between Delhi and Bangalore, we have to take a detour over Bhopal and do a series of deviations that add up to a much longer route," he says. "After GAGAN, we will have what is called 'freedom flights', leading to reduced fuel burn by 18-20%."

GAGAN will also make Indian skies safer. For example, while landing, the current system gives an aircraft the coordinates of a landing strip in a range of 20 metres. By comparison, GAGAN will give it in a range of 20 feet, thus reducing the possibility of human error. The signals on GAGAN will be beamed by three satellites of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), located at a height of about 36,000 km. Two of these satellites have been launched. A third one is expected to be launched in 2013.

Sicahin Kashmir for Pakistan

Pakistan's leap from a regional vision to a `Grand Bargain' approach to cover Kashmir and Siachen is a lunge too far.

With the monsoon retreating, the Indo Pakistan parleys drifted from South Asia to the United Nations, where the 67th regular session commenced on September 18.
The carefully nurtured bonhomie, insulated from Pakistan's disinterest in exorcising its terror demon, dissipated as first President Asif Ali Zardari in his United Nations General Assembly address and then his foreign minister, Hina Rabbani Khar, at the Asia Society stirred the Kashmir cauldron.

Why was Pakistan “internationalising“ the issue again? Perhaps Mr Zardari realised that time for his India peace initiative is over as Pakistani Supreme Court's unhappiness over the draft letter to the Swiss government signalled the demise of another Prime Minister and elections, due before February 2013 in any case. Alternatively, was Pakistan testing the mood of newly Islamist regimes in Arab countries afflicted by the “Arab Spring?“ In India, too, the focus shifted to domestic themes as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, albeit belatedly, tried resuscitating the Indian economy. His absence from New York underscored that meaningful foray into diplomacy can only follow restoration of political credibility at home, battered by coalition partners' blackmail and Congress colleagues' depredations. It was left thus to S.M. Krishna to parry Pakistan's repeated public mutterings about the UN's failure to address the Kashmir issue. Pakistan's membership of the UN Security Council for the next two years as India vacates its seat in December may also have emboldened Pakistan.

Next year will dawn with a new US President, a fresh government in Pakistan if not in India too, a presidential election in Iran, the 10yearly transfer of power in China to the fifth generation of leaders and the fruition of constitutional debates, between those for Sharia and those expounding constitutionalism, in numerous Arab countries.

The third US presidential debate would cover foreign policy. Unlike in 2008, so far Kashmir has gone unmentioned. Despite what US President Barack Obama or his challenger Mitt Romney might say, both are for withdrawal from Afghanistan. There is consensus in the US that transfer of control to Afghan National Security Forces cannot wait the shaping of Afghanistan into a functioning liberal democracy. The phrase now is: “Afghanistan good enough“. They may disagree on aspects of withdrawal but not its eventuality. The grey area is whether it is still possible to bring the Taliban to the table having prematurely announced US exit. Henry Kissinger has remarked that it is impossible to negotiate once withdrawal is on the table. Whether a re-elected Mr Obama can take it off the table, renewing pressure on Taliban and their sponsors in Pakistan, remains to be seen.

Perhaps, the trilateral between US, India and Afghanistan, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, was both a message to Pakistan and to reassure India that the US was not abandoning the region. Separately, the Chinese are raising their profile in Afghanistan, signing a strategic agreement, holding a trilateral with Afghanistan and Pakistan. They have access to the Taliban through Pakistan, having been the only nonMuslim nation in touch with Mullah Omar in the pre-2001 period.

The Russians made their own moves at the beginning of October. President Putin's path-breaking visit to Pakistan could not fructify but the rushed trip of foreign minister Sergey Lavrov was significant, as was that of Pakistani Army Chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani to Russia. These are games to broaden the strategic options of each country in the uncertain scenario imagined after the projected 2014 US withdrawal. Who would have imagined that Pakistan and Russia, sworn foes over Afghanistan in the period 1979-2001, could seek mutual solace?
Thus, more than one kind of re-balancing is under way in Asia.

The outcomes may be contingent on what kind of new leadership emerges in the entire region.
The Imran Khan march or drive to South Waziristan, though ostensibly to protest US drone attacks in Pakistan's tribal areas, has turned out to be a test of wills against the dreaded Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has dubbed Imran Khan as a “liberal and secular person“ and thus unwelcome in their domain. A similar debate rages in Cairo, where the extreme right-wing Salafists are attacking Al Azhar, the time-honoured centre for Islamic jurisprudence, for not supporting the imposition of Sharia in Egypt.
In Tunisia, where began the Arab Spring, the Islamist Nahda Party has conceded the secularists' argument to exclude constitutional reference to Sharia. In India, the narrative has turned to balancing reform and regulation, development and equity, globalisation and protectionism and so on.

Ms Khar, in her Asia Society address in New York, referred to Pakistan's “regional pivot“, anchored in a vision of regional connectivity and cooperation and manifested in open trade and greater people-topeople contacts. There can be no disagreement with her vision premised on incremental confidence-building. However leaping from this to a “Grand Bargain“ approach to cover Kashmir and Siachen is a lunge too far.

What were after all the Tashkent Agreement of 1966 and the Simla Agreement of 1972 if not failed attempts at comprehensive peace? In the first India handed back the vital Haji Pir Pass and in the second allowed the outstanding issues to remain on paper.

Verbal undertakings if any were buried with the ouster of President Ayub Khan and the hanging of Prime Minister Z. Bhutto. It is again Mr Henry Kissinger who said that hope is not a policy. Nor is solar power to Dr Manmohan Singh's ancestral village in Pakistan a harbinger of a de-radicalised Pakistan, which will only happen if more Pakistanis show the resolve of Imran Khan, particularly those in power, while Indians put their house in order.

The writer is a former secretary in the external affairs ministry.

New Banks

If the new banks too start functioning in urban areas, it would be just tokenism towards financial inclusiveness.

The RBI's announcement that it will allow four new banks to be opened has sparked much interest as it had been under intense pressure from both large corporate groups and a section of the government. Recent reports indicate the RBI, which has been deferring this decision for two years, might announce guidelines for new banks before October 30, when it announces its monetary policy review.
It is believed, though, that actual licences will be given only after the Banking Laws Amendment Bill is passed. The ostensible reasons to issue licences for new banks are to increase competition and promote financial inclusiveness. The government is also keen to push it as part of a recent slew of reforms to combat the image of “policy paralysis“ it had been accused of from all sides, within and out side the country.

At first sight, the reasons do not sound very convincing unless the RBI makes it mandatory for these new banks to open pri marily in the country's unbanked regions.

If the new banks too start functioning in urban areas, it would be only tokenism known towards financial inclusion. It is well that brick-and-mortar banks can be very expensive to manage in unbanked areas. That is why in recent years various areas. That is why in recent years various other avenues like mobile banking, business correspondents, microfinancing and other such channels have been explored to provide credit to weaker sections and particularly in unbanked areas.

The more likely answer would be “local area banks“ (LABs), which by definition are limited to specified geographical areas, and can therefore give more intensive and concentrated help to weaker sections in those areas. So if four new banks are to be given licences, at least two of them should be for LABs. The Raghuram Rajan Committee's suggestion that preference be given to small and medium-sized entities might be a good idea, though the RBI has kept this in abeyance as some of them may not be able to meet the capital requirements specified by the RBI. However, banks envisaged to further financial inclusiveness may not need a large quantum of funds.

The RBI has over the years moved very cautiously on this issue: this is evident from the fact that only 12 banks have been given licences since economic liberalisation began in 1991. It is quite correctly wary of the role of big corporate groups -there would evidently be a conflict of interest there. So unless the regulator, the RBI, is given enhanced powers -such as being allowed to vet the account books of corporates and given authority to supersede their boards if need be -giving licences to corporate groups, whether big or small, might imperil our financial stability.